Negative marking: when is a guess worth it?
Simple arithmetic for +1 / −0.25, +2 / −0.5 and +4 / −1 papers. Ruling out even one option changes everything.
Every year, aspirants lose marks to two opposite mistakes: guessing blindly in papers that punish it, and leaving bubbles blank in papers that do not. A few lines of arithmetic fix both.
The expected value of a guess
With four options and one right answer, a blind guess is right one time in four. Its average value is (¼ × marks for right) − (¾ × marks lost for wrong). Ruling out options shrinks the denominator.
| Marking | Blind guess | Rule out 1 | Rule out 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1 / −0.25 (ADRE) | +0.06 | +0.17 | +0.38 |
| +2 / −0.5 (SSC, APSC GS) | +0.125 | +0.33 | +0.75 |
| +4 / −1 (JEE, NEET, CEE) | +0.25 | +0.67 | +1.5 |
| +0.5 / 0 (Police Constable) | +0.125 | +0.17 | +0.25 |
| +1 / 0 (Assam TET) | +0.25 | +0.33 | +0.5 |
What the table tells you
- No negative marking: answer every question. A blank is always worth less than a guess.
- Negative marking: a blind guess is close to zero on average but swings your score. Guess only when you can rule out at least one option.
- Ruling out two options makes a guess clearly worth it in every common scheme.
Train it with জয়যাত্ৰা
- In every quiz, Rule out removes a wrong option and tells you how much a guess is now worth under your exam’s marking.
- Mock reviews show exactly how many marks negative marking cost you.
- Tag wrong guesses as Guessing in the mistake notebook. If the count grows, tighten your rule.
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